After the launch events of this Summer and this Fall (before and during the Köln Photokina), there are two brands leaving important questions open. This is Sony and Nikon. While the two near-friends had us used to seeing them working together around the Sony digital photo sensors, we discovered two very divergent/different announces about 35mm Full Frame dSLR cameras: A Sony Alpha 900 pushing the resolution to record levels (24.6MP) and a Nikon D700 limiting its resolution in favor of maximum sensitivity (12MP).

Some would have us thinking that Nikon would have rejected the sensor offered by Sony (used on the Alpha 900) for reasons of insufficient image quality. It does not seem so obvious when looking at the results actually obtained by Sony, but why not? After all, Nikon did obtain a special edition of the Alpha 700 sensor in order to build its Nikon D300…

So what?

It is not very difficult to forecast. Nikon is preparing a Full Frame SLR photo camera with very high resolution (the Nikon D800 of the rumour mill or the D4 promised around Christmas?) and Sony will derive a low resolution version of the Alpha 900 (most certainly named Alpha 800). Their moves will be opposite but very complementary (and predictable).

In both cases, you can say that Canon will not be forced into running with the pack. With their EOS 5D Mk II (and the last EOS 5D, sold at bargain prices), there is enough to sustain the pressure, but Canon will need to react in 2009, before Summer.

French magazine Réponse Photo has delayed its parution date to 23rd possibly to wait for the revelation of a yet-unannouced camera (obviously it could only be from Nikon or Canon).

It is quite possible that Canon is trying to arrive after the Nikon announcement of its 24,6MP Full Frame camera (Nikon D800 or Nikon D900, maybe?), scheduled for 18th of September.

Beware: We said announces, not releases.

Already done:

Beware: This will be updated as often as needed. This may lead to repeated publications in the RSS feeds and some publication date changes.

Anyway, do not expect to get any reliable information now. Canon has put under NDA (Non Disclosure Agreement) all press representative and has provided the pre-production cameras for the initial hands-on reviews to pop up everywhere when the embargo is lifted.

This is exactly the reason why  we no longer have any information about the upcoming Sony Alpha 900 which will be fighting in exactly the same market. Possibly with exactly the same weapons (two cameras to simultaneously cover both the $2000 and $3000 ranges).

Essentially, Thom is saying “3 new SLR cameras before the end of 2008“. And, this would mean that all the probable/expected cameras are coming to fruition in the coming months:

• Nikon D800/D900: A big image version of the Nikon D700 (based upon the Sony 24MP Full Frame sensor).
• Nikon D3x or Nikon D4: the high-end replacement for the Nikon D3 (but the name seems not to be confirmed at all, right now).
• Nikon D90: The camera aimed at the low end of the SLR market. Since Nikon is still resisting to the Canon lower-end (the Canon EOS 1000D is still a little expensive compared to the Nikon D60).

This is the reason why the Canon 100-400mm f/4.5-5.6 L IS UM and Nikon AF 80-400mm VR f/4.5-5.6 D ED has been so successful despite their obviously high prices (around $2000). When I’m on photo safari, I’d say that about half the people around me have one of the Canons as their main lens (somtimes, it’s even their only lens).

Some time ago, Sigma added its own version of this lens (see this high-end zoom lens comparison). And it was a winner in terms of price-performance.

Now, we can expect several significant news in this range of products coming from different manufacturers.

• Sony presented about a year ago a mockup of a zoom lens corresponding well to this range. The word is out that it will be a 70-400mm f/5.6 zoom presented to the European press on August 14th (for an official launch in the beginning of September, probably at the same time Sony launches the Sony Alpha 800 and/or Sony Alpha 900 Full Frame camera(s)).
• According to some rumors (mainly originating from an unsubstantiated initial post at NikonRumours), there will soon be a Nikon AF80-400mm f/4.5-5.6D ED VR update. And this should be explaining the reduced availability of the original version.

I would even be tempted to read between the lines of a recent test article of Chasseur d’Image and say that Canon will also be hard pressed to provide an update to its aging 100-400mm. After all, it’s a real cash cow and a sure sale for owners of top- and mid-range cameras like the Canon EOS 40D (and possibly its successor EOS 50D – next year?).

Since the EOS 5D MkII is expected around this time and no later than September PMA fair, this is quite a possibility and having a handful of these cameras in the hands of pro photographers for all to see would be a very nice promotional opportunity for Canon. This is much needed after the thunderous launch of the Nikon D700 and just before the arrival of the Sony Alpha 800/900 (direct competitors in the Full Frame SLR camera market).

I’m still sceptical about an EOS 50D that would be arriving a little too early according to Canon habits in terms of launches, except if it was a low-cost version of the previous Full Frame camera. And, there, it would be a great event. Think about it! Simultaneous launch of two war machines hitting right into the center of the preoccupations of the most enthusiast photographers.

Some people expect the announcement to happen on Monday.

As you can notice, it is expected that the Sony Alpha 900 will be targetting low prices despite it’s 24MP sensor (or it will have a little Alpha 800 brother, while the Alpha 900 would shoot for a higher price point). But the current Canon EOS 5D seems to be an astonishingly good bargain (while stocks last).

Interestingly, Thom Hogan, who is often quite knowledgeable about Nikon, thinks that the name should become the Nikon D900. He thinks that this would be the reflection of an effort to bring own the price to allow it to fight against the real competition seen as the Canon EOS 5D MkII and the Sony Alpha 900. Honestly, I have no opinion or no information to add here. You know that I think this would be needed (in terms of price) and names are mostly a marketing issue after the technical features are locked in.

The availability date should not be more than 1 year from now, and quite probably in the very first weeks of 2009.